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We Ran the Numbers: Paid Ads vs. Organic — Here’s What Wins

Paid ads dominated the poll... but is organic really dead? In this deep dive, we break down the data, reveal the real costs, and give you a playbook to win — no matter which side you’re on.

Author

Stephen Hilgart
March 19, 2025

📜 WAR BRIEFING

The Polls Are In… But Are They Telling the Full Story?

Paid ads dominated the poll. 

90% of people said they’d bet their entire budget on paid traffic in 2025.

But does that mean organic marketing is dead? Or are we looking at this the wrong way?

💳 Paid: (90%) | 🌱 Organic: (10%)


Here’s the truth:

→ Most businesses don’t have unlimited budgets. They need to know where to invest for maximum ROI.

→ Ad costs are rising. Is there a breaking point where paid stops being worth it?

→ Organic reach is declining. But some businesses are still scaling with it. What’s their secret?

Today’s report is pure strategy — no fluff, no guesswork:

📊 The hard numbers proving what’s working (and what’s not)
📌 The step-by-step playbook for running Paid or Organic (or both)
💰 How to combine them for maximum leverage

Let’s get to it.

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📊 INTEL REPORT

Inside the Battle: The Hard Truth About Paid vs. Organic in 2025

We’ve broken down the battle into four key fronts — each one revealing the true cost, effectiveness, and strategic advantages of both Paid and Organic growth in 2025.

💰 The State of Paid Ads – What’s working, what’s failing, and how rising costs are reshaping ad strategies.

🌱 The State of Organic Growth – The reality of organic reach, platform changes, and what it actually takes to win.

📊 The Real Cost of Customer Acquisition – Breaking down the numbers: Cost per lead, booked call, and sale—so you can see where the real ROI is.

🛠 The Playbook: How to Win in 2025 – A tactical guide based on your business model—whether you lean into Paid, Organic, or a strategic mix of both.

1️⃣ The State of Paid Advertising in 2025

Paid ads are more competitive than ever—but they still work. The question is: At what cost?

💰Cost Per Lead (CPL) & Cost Per Sale (CPS) Across Platforms:

  • Facebook/Instagram Ads: CPL up 27% YoY, averaging $19 per lead in most industries.

  • Google Ads: Search ads have increased 18%, with CPCs (cost per click) averaging $4-$6 in competitive markets.

  • TikTok Ads: Still one of the cheapest platforms, but conversion rates are lower than Meta.

  • LinkedIn Ads: Highest CPL (~$75+ per lead), but strong for B2B & high-ticket services.

  • YouTube Ads: High intent, but rising costs—CPLs range from $9 to $30.

💡 Biggest Winners Right Now:

  • Retargeting Ads – Warm audiences convert at 2-3x the rate of cold traffic.

  • UGC-Style Video Ads – Higher engagement, lower costs than polished branded ads.

  • Brand Search Campaigns – Protect your name from competitors bidding on it.

⚠️ Biggest Risks & Blind Spots:

  • Ad costs are rising across the board – if your funnel isn’t optimized, you’re burning money.

  • iOS privacy updates continue to hurt tracking – making retargeting harder.

  • Platforms are pushing AI-driven ad automation – great for lazy marketers, dangerous if you don’t know how to optimize manually.

🏆 Who Paid Works Best For:

  • E-commerce brands (if they have solid margins… like really solid).

  • Coaches & consultants (if they convert leads well… how’s your sales team?).

  • High-ticket B2B services (where one client = high ROI).

2️⃣ The State of Organic Marketing in 2025

Organic isn’t free. It’s just a different type of investment.

Declining Organic Reach & Algorithm Shifts:

  • Instagram Reach: Down 33% YoY for business pages.

  • Facebook Business Pages: Organic reach? Less than 1% unless you’re viral.

  • TikTok Organic: Still strong, but heavily favors short-form video (posting 3-5x per day recommended).

  • LinkedIn: Still a goldmine for organic growth if you post consistently (3-5x per week).

  • SEO: Google is shifting toward AI overviews—making organic traffic harder to capture.

💡 Winning Organic Strategies in 2025:

  • Thought Leadership (LinkedIn, YouTube) – If you’re the face of your business, people buy from trust.

  • SEO + Community – Blog traffic still matters, but combining it with email + audience-building is the real play.

  • Long-Form Evergreen Content – YouTube & blogs compound over time, unlike social media posts that vanish in 48 hours.

⚠️ Biggest Risks & Blind Spots:

  • It’s a slow game – Can take 6-12 months to see meaningful ROI.

  • Posting every day ≠ conversions – Engagement doesn’t always translate to sales.

  • SEO is changing rapidly – Google’s AI summaries are cutting into organic rankings.

🏆 Who Organic Works Best For:

  • Personal brands & thought leaders (coaches, consultants, authors).

  • Long-term businesses playing a multi-year game (SEO-heavy brands).

  • Companies with strong word-of-mouth/referral loops.

3️⃣ The True Cost of Acquisition – Paid vs. Organic

So what’s the real math?

What does it actually cost to acquire a customer?

Metric

Paid Advertising

Organic Marketing

Average Cost Per Lead

$19 (Meta),
$9-$30 (YouTube),
$75 (LinkedIn)

“Free” but time-intensive

Time to ROI

Immediate (if funnel converts)

6-12 months+

Consistency Required

Budget-dependent

Daily or weekly content output

Scalability

Fast but expensive

Slow but compounds over time

Biggest Risk

Rising costs, iOS tracking loss

Takes too long for most businesses

In other words:

  • Paid gets faster results, but it’s getting more expensive.

  • Organic can be "free," but it requires consistency, expertise, and time.

  • Most businesses need a hybrid strategy to survive.

🧠 STRATEGY STEVE’S INSIGHTS

The Playbook – How to Win in 2025 (I.E. “Here’s What To DO”)

Instead of just talking theory, let’s give you a real strategy to apply right now.

Coaches & High-Ticket Services:

  • Use Webinar Funnels + Retargeting Ads (warm traffic converts 2-3x better).

    It doesn’t have to be a live webinar, it can easily be an on-demand video (in fact, I’ve had much better luck with those these days than trying to get people to show up live). But the strategy is to run traffic to an opt-in or straight to the video, retarget them with ads to finish that video or apply.

  • Budget: $3k-$10k/month minimum for success.

E-Commerce:

  • Run UGC-style video ads for best engagement.

  • Focus on Repeat Purchase Rate & LTV (lifetime value).

SaaS & Digital Products:

  • Consider Product-Led Growth (free trials + referral incentives).

  • Use Google Search & YouTube Ads (high intent).

Organic Playbook (For Businesses Willing to Play the Long Game)

Best Posting Cadence by Platform:

  • LinkedIn: 3-5x per week (text + carousel posts).

  • YouTube: 1-2 long-form videos per week.

  • TikTok & Instagram: 3-5 short-form videos per day.

  • SEO & Blogging: Weekly evergreen content.

Tracking ROI on Organic

  • Use Lead Tracking (where did sales actually come from?).

  • Leverage Email + Community to monetize organic audiences.

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Knowing the right strategy is one thing. 

Executing it the right way—with expert guidance and a battle-tested game plan—is what actually drives results.

Don’t know WHAT content to make? How to write ads? This might be for you.

Inside The Path, you’ll get:

✅ Weekly live Q&A and training calls on paid ads, organic content, copywriting, and business strategy.

✅ A step-by-step funnel & ad playbook to maximize your ROI.

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Final Verdict: The Smartest Move in 2025

✅ Paid Ads are still the fastest way to scale—but they’re only profitable with a strong offer and funnel.

✅ Organic is still powerful—but most businesses don’t have the patience to do it right.

✅ The Hybrid Approach Wins—Strategic paid ads + organic authority building is the real long-term play.


🔻 YOUR MOVE 🔻
What’s your strategy for 2025? Are you betting on paid, organic, or both?

Hit reply and let’s talk. 🚀

🎯 FINAL STRATEGIC MOVE

Want To Go Deeper? Here’s How:

1️⃣ The Path — Join our free strategy & coaching group to sharpen your marketing, scale your business, and outmaneuver the competition.

2️⃣ Need a Marketing Playbook — Fast? Book a one-off consultation or bring me in as your Fractional CMO for high-impact, no-BS growth strategies.

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See you Friday with the battle breakdown. Until then — adapt, strategize, and conquer.

⚔️ Stephen
The Obsessed Strategist